What’s Next in the Forecast?

What’s Next in the Forecast?

June 2015 was the wettest month on record in Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio, but I don’t have to tell you that if you live in one of these states as you’ve experienced it firsthand.

But what’s next? Here are some predictions of what we might face weather-wise in the upcoming weeks and months.

Precipitation:
Despite our wet period now, the models suggest that Indiana’s summer will have average precipitation. The “EC” in these July, August, September maps highlight that our summer has an equal chance (EC) of being wet or dry and an equal chance of being colder or warmer than average which is a prediction of being an average summer. See this link for a more detailed explanation.

Temperature:
Our temperatures have been below average for the first six months of the year.

The models suggest that Indiana’s summer will have slightly below average to average temperature. The “EC” in these July, August, September maps highlight that our summer has an equal chance (EC) of being colder or warmer than average. The “B” 33 means there is a 33% chance of us being below average in July, August, and September. See this link for a more detailed explanation.

What does all this mean? Possibly it means a good summer for cool-season turf in Indiana and another year of difficulty (cool spring, average to cooler than average summer) for warm-season grasses. If the end of the summer ends up being cooler than average, turf managers will need to adjust their normal practices slightly. For example, possibly seeding a week or two earlier than normal – much like we did in 2014. If August and September are cooler than average, we should seed cool-season grasses the whole month of August and into early September rather than waiting for our typical mid-August to mid-September window.

We obviously can’t predict the weather but some speculation can be helpful as we seek to prepare for what’s next.

Aaron Patton, Turfgrass Extension Specialist
Follow @PurdueTurfDoc